The last year and a half has not been easy for world stock markets, especially considering the crash that took place in March 2020. Since then, the recovery has occurred at different speeds, although Wall Street is in the zone of maximums historical events and Europe is already doing it. On the other hand, the rise of 21% in the Ibex 35 is insufficient.
When it comes to investing in equities in Spain, the first thing that comes to mind is that select group of 35, however, there are smaller companies in the Continuous Market savanna that arouse a lot of interest among analysts. In fact, there are better recommendations outside of the index. More than 51% of the securities that are monitored by the market include buying advice, compared to 32% for the Ibex .
The recommendations to hold are 54% on the Ibex compared to 38% on the Continuous. The balance is equal in the most pessimistic experts, 14% against 11% in each case.
Among the companies with the best recommendation and with the greatest potential at 12 months ahead, nine stand out, specifically because they have an upward path of more than 20%; In all there are, in addition, at least ten analysts who support these projections.
Prosegur is the analysts’ favorite bet in this pack. It has the most endorsed buying advice: all the investment banks that follow its trajectory, a total of ten, believe that buying its shares can be an opportunity.
The security company occupies one of the Top 10 positions for fundamentals of Ecotrader , the audited portfolio of elEconomista that brings together the 10 companies that deserve a better recommendation for investment banks. Until today, it has risen 13%, but analysts still expect greater increases. They see a potential of 34%, up to 3.68 euros, that is, they expect it to recover in the next 12 months its levels prior to the collapse caused by the pandemic.
Regarding its future growth strategy and financial objectives, Sabadell analysts believe that “although in many cases they are based on new products on which visibility is still low, in the absence of a more detailed analysis, they would have a positive impact. in our estimates, also being above the market consensus “.
The construction company is another of the companies that are part of the Top 10 for Ecotrader fundamentals thanks to the good recommendations it has. Some advice that has improved in recent weeks, especially after leaving more than one with their mouths open after confessing to the market.
In fact, on July 30 after presenting an EBITDA (gross operating profit) of 402 million in the first half, up 16%, Sacyr lost its only sales advice among analysts who follow it at Bloomberg . Its good year on the stock market, it appreciates more than 9%, it does not seem to have an end, so much so that analysts give it an upward potential of almost 40%.
Logista does not lose the confidence of analysts. Although it manages to revalue in 2021 by 17%, they still see much more strength in it, as they expect it to advance by an additional 33%.
With this jump it would reach a price of 24.57 euros, levels never seen before. Their titles, at their highest for the year, have not yet recovered from the March crash . Another of its great attractions is the dividend, the highest in this group, with 7%.
In addition, she is one of the applicants to join the Ibex, where she would enter the fishing ground for more funds . However, it already has a weight of more than 5% in the portfolios of large Spanish stock market funds such as Santander Actions Spanish or BBVA Bolsa. And an outstanding weighting in value funds such as azValor Iberia, Magallanes Iberian Equity or EDM-Inversión.
Applus is another of the little jewels of the Spanish stock market. Expert estimates estimate a potential of 41% in the short term, up to a price of 11.18 euros. A leap that would allow him to erase the ravages caused by Covid-19. In presenting its results for the first half of the year, Applus ‘figures exceeded analysts’ expectations.
“The performance in 2021 is still weak and is still trading below pre-Covid levels, so we believe that the impact of these results should be positive and the increased guidance should add confidence and optimism,” says a report from Sabadell. where the recommendation is to buy Applus titles. By 2021, the FactSet consensus expects an increase in its net profit of 176%.
CAF has become the type of firm that is not lacking in the bets of the experts. With one of the most supported buying advice among the small promises, it presents a potential upside of 30%. If achieved, it would go on to trade at 48.59, thus breaking the barrier of its pre-crash price, located on February 19, 2020 at 41.89 euros.
The recovery process is also visible in its results, as it managed to get out of losses in the first semester. “We have revised upwards our estimates for the coming years in view of the expectations of a progressive recovery in the Services activity and the recent good evolution of Contracts and that sustainable transport should be one of the focuses of action of the NGEU funds”, argue from Bankinter, where they give CAF a target price of 45.1 euros.
Currently, FactSet analysts expect the company to multiply its net earnings by eight for this year. That is, they estimate that their profit will grow from 9 million euros in 2020, to about 84 million.
The new Unicaja, the result of the recent merger with Liberbank, shows an upward potential of close to 38%, up to a price of 1.07 euros. It is the national bank for which analysts expect a greater journey in the near future and the one with the best recommendation. Of the 15 firms that follow the evolution of Unicaja, only one advises to sell its shares.
The latest solo results of the Malaga entity showed an increase of 15% in its profit this first semester, to 70 million euros. By the end of this year and the next, the estimates must still adapt to the merger, but what the bank has made clear is that it will distribute 50% of its profits in dividends to shareholders, once the ECB’s veto to the sector.
Prosegur Cash is another of the favorite values. Its shares are trading 1.6% lower than at the beginning of the year, slight declines that will soon be erased if analysts’ forecasts do not fail. The market predicts a 12-month upward potential of more than 45%.
Another of its strengths is the dividend yield it offers, more than 4%. Like its parent company, it has a policy of four annual payments, in this case of 0.0097 euros, making a total of 0.0388. Their commitment is to distribute 50-60% of the profit.
Will Prosegur sell its stake? “One of the options for that to happen is a large operation that we are open to. However, it has to be at a good price, at least at the price at which we went public four years ago because the company is now better, more diversified, more innovative, in more countries … that is the ground and we are in no rush. The operation will come at its proper price, “explained Antonio Rubio, Prosegur’s general secretary, in a recent interview with elEconomista .
The communication group has already scored 23% since January began, but analysts still calculate higher increases, of 30%, to 6.79 euros. This would mean its return to levels that have not been seen since 2019. Although Mediaset’s redomiciliation to the Netherlands has already been approved, for fear of past litigation, the firm has not yet proposed a merger with Mediaset Spain.
“We believe that the announcement of the merger could occur at the earliest in the fourth quarter of the year, that is, after the re-domiciliation of Mediaset is completed in September 2021,” they point out in Citi. “Mediaset España has not provided any guarantee on its dividend , indicating that it is reserving its financial resources for mergers and acquisitions,” they point out.
The pulp producer maintains a purchase recommendation despite what happened with the unfavorable ruling on its Pontevedra factory. 77% of analysts who follow her at Bloomberg assure that it is a time to acquire their titles. Its shares are down about 23% in 2021 and it is practically at the same levels as in March 2020.
Analysts are aware of the uncertainty, but so far they have not cut their valuations that much. Your target price is 53% up. On the positive side, at Bankinter they highlight that “the recent evolution of the price of cellulose and the average of the pool are favorable and we estimate that they will continue at high levels although they will moderate slightly”.
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