Spanish companies and workers will contribute with their Social Security contributions in 2022 up to 18.4% more than the volume of contributions registered in the year of Pedro Sánchez’s arrival at La Moncloa Palace. Specifically, for next year, a collection of up to 136,345 million euros is expected through social contributions , with 7.5% growth over the previous year – total contributions will grow by 9.6% to 168,142 million-.
Thus, they explain from the Executive that this growth is influenced by the elevation of the maximum contribution bases by 1.7% and by the recovery of GDP expected for the year 2022, in contrast to the decrease experienced in 2021 as a consequence of the health crisis, which mainly responds to quota exemptions in temporary employment regulatory files and in the special regime for self-employed workers. As noted in the Budget project “for the year 2022 the income from contributions of companies and employed workers reflect the forecasts of recovery of the economy and employment.”
On the one hand, the contributions of the unemployed, beneficiaries of cessation of activity and social bonuses provided by the State Public Employment Service (Sepe) amount to 8,755 million euros, which represents a decrease of 0.4% compared to the previous year as a result of the high volume of benefits recognized during 2021 due to the health crisis and the increase in employment expected in 2022.
The contributions for the cessation of activity of employed self-employed workers are quantified at 366 million euros, which represents a growth with with respect to 2021 for the same reasons as those set out for the contributions of companies and employed workers.
Regarding the set of non-financial income, for 2022 it is expected to amount to 173,640 million euros, 9.6% more than the settlement forecast for 2021. Of these, 136,344 million come from social contributions, which represent 9,460 million more (7.5%) than in 2021, a year in which the prepandemic levels will already be exceeded.
Specifically, after a 3.5% drop in 2020 prices due to the impact of Covid on the labor market, the 2022 budget foresees a recovery of almost 10% compared to 2019, as highlighted by the Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, José Luis Escrivá, during the presentation of the main lines of the Accounts corresponding to his agency. “The intense improvement in the economy that we are experiencing is already having an important reflection on income from social contributions and will also have it in 2022,” said the minister.
A good part of the improvement in Social Security collection through contributions is mainly sustained by an estimate of an improvement in the labor market and employment in the coming year. Faced with increased economic activity and, above all, the reactivation of the services sector, they will be transferred to the labor market with an increase in employment and a reduction in unemployment.
Taking into account the most recent evolution of labor indicators in terms of affiliation, Erte and activity terminations, employment growth is expected in 2022 of 2.7%. This positive evolution of employment will allow the unemployment rate to stand at 15.2% in 2021 and continue to fall to 14.1% in 2022. Consequently, throughout 2022 it is expected to reach quarterly unemployment rates similar to those registered in 2019, before the impact of the health crisis.
For its part, this improvement in employment is also largely due to the expected increase in consumption as the effects of the pandemic are mitigated. Thus, consumption continues to be the main engine of growth, after the positive data in the second quarter that has caused a slight upward revision of the forecast for 2021 as a whole, to 8.0% in 2021, maintaining the forecast of a 6.9% growth in 2022.