“As I have been pointing out repeatedly for months, the scenario that I handle for the Ibex 35 in the coming months is bullish, but depending on what happens in future sessions, we will have to wait more or less time for that next upward movement to take place towards objectives that I value at 10,100 points, which is where the Ibex 35 was trading before the Covid crash, “explains Joan Cabrero, Ecotrader advisor .
“For the bullish scenario to take shape faster, we should attend the break of the key resistance of 9,000 / 9,055 points , which is the dividing line that separates a still corrective context from a potentially bullish one, depending on whether it remains below or it is exceeded respectively “, adds the expert in technical analysis.
“With the range of 3,980 points the EuroStoxx 50 is normal to form a bounce but it is still too early to talk of strength and that risks stay away from attending a wider correction and deep, you could find the area of the 3,800 points, “says Joan Cabrero, strategist for the investment strategies portal of elEconomista .
“In order to remove the risks, the first step is for the EuroStoxx 50 to be able to beat the resistance of 4,100 points and the next and final step would be to overcome the resistance of 4,215 points,” adds the Ecotrader analyst.
Increase the cost of energy
The cost of energy (oil, gas or coal) as a percentage of global economic activity reaches peaks of the Great Financial Crisis (about 9%) and points to peaks of the oil crisis of the 1970s (in the 10%, as calculated by Citi).
A pressure on inflation and economic recovery that was noticeable this Wednesday in the Asian session, with falls in Japan and Hong Kong, and which also underlies the decline in the stock markets of Europe and the United States, after the rebound of this Tuesday, in which investors looked for buying opportunities in big technology hit by the Facebook crisis .
Oil goes up
Futures that trade on a barrel of Brent, a benchmark in Europe, are already close to 83 dollars, after rising 60% since the beginning of the year, and those that do so on gas reach record highs.
Saudi Arabia has cut prices for all types of crude destined for Asia, its largest market, following the OPEC + group’s decision to keep production increases at a slow pace, which has sent the price of futures skyrocketing.
The euro, down 1.16
The euro is still below 1.16 dollars, at the lows of June 2020, before the money that seeks the debt of the United States (the interest of the 10-year reference advances towards 1.6%) and other denominated assets on the greenback , as a refuge from the rise in the cost of energy and volatility in the stock markets.
“The recovery of the euro was limited after the ECB’s Lagarde said that a rate hike would have no effect in this environment driven by commodity prices,” observes Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at Oanda.
Interest on the US 30-year bond has risen to its highest level since June in recent hours, on rising energy prices, raising concerns about accelerating inflation . The yield on this long-term benchmark debt in the secondary market jumped to 2.14%, extending its advance from last month’s low of 1.81%.
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